Wednesday, January 06, 2016

Maths of the Day - December

How December looked in graphs...


Earlier in the season, the Appletonometer - the accumulation of points on a rolling 46 game basis benefited from some 'free points'. The start to last season was a disaster, anything we did at the start of this was going to be an improvement. 

We now appear to be at a bit of a cruising height holding around at 77 points for the last few weeks. After the Yeovil game that picked up to 78, which is both an improvement on last month and an all-time high, but only just.

Five game form

The reason is our short-term form, the Wycombe defeat hurt us, but when you're picking up more than 10 points out of every 15, the loss of three is always going to have an effect. We ended the month with form of 8 points from the last 5 games. A drop, no doubt, but not the worst. Also, it's not time to hit the panic button, even our moderate form is an improvement on much of last season.

Run rate

To illustrate the need not to panic, we are bang on the money in terms of winning the title. When the objective is promotion, it shows we have quite a bit in reserve to handle this period. There are two issues related to that; the first is if the division over-performs and actually the targets are too low. This is something that's quite possible, but that we can't control. The other issue is buckling under pressure if we were to drop below third. The season won't settle until the FA Cup and JPT are settled, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our form trundle along in this fashion for a few weeks yet and that could see us drop into the play-off zone.

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