I don’t like runs, especially ones that threaten to be
record breaking. Losing runs are, of course, demoralising and agitate people into
rash decisions, whether that be making grand proclamations of failure,
replacing managers or dropping players.
Equally, winning runs become debilitating. Before Saturday’s
1-1 draw with Macclesfield we were looking at a record equalling fifth straight
away win (although whether the JPT win over Aldershot should count should
probably be disputed). Had we won, the Gillingham game would have been record
breaking.
But winning runs are like inflating a bike tyre, at first
every pump is a noticeable improvement and really welcomed. But each additional
pump takes you closer to over-inflating and another puncture. The more you
inflate, the more dramatic the pop.
This is because a run takes you further and further into the
unknown. Drawing with Macclesfield should be considered the best result
possible – even better than a win in the long term. I know everyone likes
winning, but the draw acts as a valve, releasing a bit of pressure. We can go
into the Gillingham game with our form in tact, but no talk of records.
I do like trends, because trends give you an indication of
the real picture. Trends include the vagaries of lucky wins, dodgy defeats,
injuries and suspensions and any seasonal factors. Nobody ever won a title by
winning every game so defeats and draws – Sir Alex Ferguson’s squeaky bum time –
need to be accepted as part of the rough and tumble of a season. Promotion is
won by ensuring the standard remains high and the fluctuations are less varied.
My favourite trend is the 46 game moving annual total, this
accounts for those fluctuations: the points accumulated from the last 46 games
give you an idea of our form on an annual basis. Last year we accumulated 63
points, we needed 68 to be in the play-offs, and 80 to be promoted
automatically.
The 46 games up to and including Saturday’s game saw us
accumulate 72 points, which is play-off form. It is also by some distance the
best form we’ve been in since we returned to the Football League. And, if fail
to pick up points in Gillingham, this is not a sign that the bubble has burst,
because the annual total will simply remain on 72.
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