The wrap - Portsmouth 4 Oxford United 1

Inevitably, after Saturday's defeat to Portsmouth, someone on the phone-in reached for that standard explanation for any failure - NO PASSION. 

Passion, like 'springboards' and 'momentum' are mainstays of any fans' explanation of form. Granted, it may be an alternative word to 'application' - the need to actually put effort into something - but ultimately, passion won't win games. There are about 7,000 people who passionately follow Oxford United every other Saturday - they are invariably useless at football.

So, what's going wrong?

Inevitably, after the Portsmouth result, Michael Appleton's name was being wafted around - after all, the guy is unemployed, can't we just go and get him and return to 2016? 2016 represents modern-Oxford's high watermark, its benchmark, it's our safe, happy place.

Indeed, 2016 is helpful in providing a reference point to analyse most things related to the club, but to simply want to go back there is unrealistic and therefore unhelpful.

So, where did it go so right?

Firstly, let's not forget, the Eales, Ashton, Appleton revolution took a year to materialise. 2014/15 was as bad as 2015/16 was good. While they were getting things right, there was a lot that went wrong  including losing our first four league games (sounds familiar). At most other clubs, Appleton wouldn't have been given the time he was to get things right. 

Second, there was funding - Darryl Eales had money, which he could access and was prepared to spend. He was close enough to the club's operations to ensure that the money, when needed, was available. Players, infrastructure, marketing - it wasn't so much about the amount of money that was spent - though that was inevitably a factor - it was more about the speed at which it could be accessed. 

Third, Mark Ashton was an aggressively proactive chief executive. I confess, I didn't particularly like his schtick - especially in the early weeks. However, I briefly worked with someone who worked at a senior level with London Welsh who described Ashton as a 'nightmare' because if he wanted something, there was nothing to stop him getting it. He may have been a nightmare, but he was our nightmare.

And finally, we had a manager who understood the mechanics of modern football. Good scouting, sports science, short-term process goals, marginal gains. Whatever you want to call it, Appleton understood it, not only that, he studied it. He was given an unusually long time to get it right - but without that no manager would have achieved what he did with us. Even media-gobshite Robbie Savage admitted that new Arsenal manager Unai Emery will need at least three transfer windows to get things right, that's 18 months. Time most managers aren't given.

So this is, broadly, the formula we aspire to. Simply saying let's go back there seems an unlikely option - Darryl Eales had the funding to get us out of League 2, but a sustained challenge at League 1 seems unlikely. Mark Ashton and Michael Appleton's reputations place them squarely in the Championship - like many of the players they signed. We are simply too small for them at the moment.

Karl Robinson inherited quite a mess when he joined the club. There was the wreckage of the Pep Clotet experiment, coupled with a 10 week delay in getting his appointment over the line, in addition to Tiger's takeover. By this time we were in a relegation fight. You could argue that Robinson has had five months to get things right, but he was firefighting for a lot of that time. You could argue that the clock really only started when he secured safety last season, not when he joined.

There appears to be funding; Tiger has invested and in a lot of the right areas - training ground, youth set-up and the first team squad. Marketing has improved, including the strategy of building stronger links with the city; you may feel that town and gown shouldn't mix - but in terms of attracting investment, it seems ludicrous that we don't try to trade off the city's global reputation.

The problem seems to be the speed at which things happen. The training ground isn't finished and the club is living a nomadic life as a result, alongside this, signings have come in late. This is where I think there's a real weakness. For Mark Ashton's aggressive ambition, we now have Niall McWilliams - a largely silent, passive managing director. Is he demanding progress and funding, is he 'the nightmare' we need to get things done? It won't be wholly his fault; only Tiger has access to Tiger's chequebook, but the link between managing director and owner seems far too loose at the moment.

Which brings us to Karl Robinson. You sense Robinson's frustration that things are zipping along as he'd expect. Is it an excuse? Maybe, but I do get the sense he knows how to manage a football team. But, like Appleton before him, he needs the environment to be right to thrive. At the moment, it's not broken, it's just not functioning properly. He said as much on Saturday - they just have to get through this phase and things will improve. The risk is that players stop buying into the way of working and we find ourselves in another relegation fight.

The good news is that it can't get much worse. We won't lose every game and concede a bucketload for the whole year. The infrastructure, management and players are more than good enough to climb the table. What we don't know is what normal is from this squad. For everyone's sanity, the sooner we find out the better.   

The wrap - Portsmouth 3 Oxford United 0

The good 
For the first hour before everything changed, we looked good. Very good, even. Napa was probably over-eulogised by the TV commentators as the new messiah we’ve ALL been talking about, but he looked bright and caused enough problems. James Henry playing off the front two works well and we should have gone into the break at least even.

The bad 
After the opening goal, my overriding thought was that we are a top eight team that can’t defend, and that’s what makes us a lower-middle table team. There are two principle reasons for this – Chey Dunkley and Curtis Nelson. Both were an immense physical presence in the back-four last year, which we’ve lost. Rob Dickie looks good on the ball, but lacks physicality – as was evident in the first goal. John Mousinho’s last two games have been solid, but he lacks pace and is a shadow of the legend we supposedly signed from Burton. They’re probably the best pairing available, although I’m not alone in wondering why we let Charlie Raglan go to Port Vale.

The ugly 
The game turned, quite obviously, on the penalty and the resulting dismissal of Alex Mowatt. It illustrates the thing I absolutely despise about football. It was a high-pressure moment, had the ball gone a millimetre to the left it would have gone in, a millimetre to the right it would have bounced out and the players would have been pre-occupied by the rebound.

Mowatt was clearly frustrated by the margin of his error, Nathan Thompson clearly elated. Both acted instinctively in their reactions. There were 17,000 people showing similar emotions and yet the two most involved were supposed to control theirs. The result was unsavoury, but neither player was in any genuine physical danger. But, because the rules say so, Mowatt was dismissed for violent conduct.

There are rules in football which have been created to deal with particularly elements of the game which are not conducive to its spirit. The offside rule was invented to prevent goal-hanging, the penalty box to stop players unfairly preventing goal-scoring chances. Violent conduct is clearly to stop people getting hurt.

In all three cases, the rules has been ‘gamed’, players will battle for the ball to get in the penalty box, but collapse on the fall at the merest touch, offside traps are set 30-40 yards from goal.

What Mowatt did wasn’t violent in the sense that Thompson was in any danger. If you see the physical punishment of boxing, ice hockey or rugby, it’s clear that Thompson was a long way from being seriously injured in the incident. I don’t blame him for his reaction immediately after the ball bounced off the post – it was the equal and opposite reaction to Mowatt’s. But, because he knew that violent conduct has been denigrated to ‘raising your hands’ he gamed the system by falling on the ground as though he’d been hit square on the jaw by Roberto Duran. It’s a reaction so deeply ingrained in football, it makes a mockery of its original purpose, and that should be a wake-up call.

We expect players to play with passion and commitment – the whole game is sold on it - but at the same time, act dispassionately and with detachment even in its most extreme moments.

As a result, not only did we lose the game, it degenerated as a spectacle at the moment it had reached boiling point and we’ve lost Mowatt for three games for what was little more than a light push. Plus, Mowatt is expected to act with deep remorse and everyone should fall in line with sanctimonious lines about how ‘you just can’t do that’.

The solution, in this case, is an adjustment to the law by adding something about having a clear intent to harm, and empower the officials to make that judgement. Sure, book players for being a bit silly and to defuse an argument, but sending him off and banning him is a ridiculous penalty for something so minor.

We’ve lost sight of the original purpose of the violent conduct rule, and as a result what we have is a pantomime in which players have learnt certain behaviours to use it and advantage their team. In this case, falling to the ground as though shot. A small adjustment to the rules, rather than expecting the players to act like robots, would improve the game significantly.

Portsmouth, Scunthorpe and Shrewsbury wraps

In principle, I agree with Darryl Eales in that it seems ridiculous to have a transfer window that drifts into the first month of the season just as teams are settling themselves for the campaign ahead. Closing the window on the last day of July would make a lot of sense, but it would also shorten the close-season, particularly if you factor in international tournaments and friendlies, and would probably push negotiations into the back end of the previous season, which potentially disrupts your run-in. So it's not a panacea.

There seems to be a certain inevitability about Marvin Johnson's departure from the club, it seems just a question of where and for how much. The charade demonstrated best before the defeat to Scunthorpe with the club making claims that he was all set to play before withdrawing him with a 'tight hamstring'. Afterwards Pep Clotet played it straight by sticking to the facts and saying that Johnson remained an Oxford player. It sounded defiant and forthright, but in reality, that offered nothing new.

There's been a growing frustration around the club's transfer policy. We are led to believe that being a 'selling club' is a bad thing. For some, this simply reinforces the narrative that Darryl Eales has no ambition. Now, you may not like the fact that we’re in the habit of losing players to bigger clubs but it is how we work, and it is working. From Kemar Roofe’s money we’ve bought Marvin Johnson and from Marvin Johnson and John Lundstram’s money we’re in a position to buy Gino van Kessel or others, should we want to.

There are three ways in which football clubs function, they can enjoy the benefits of a rich benefactor who treats the club like a hobby, you can live a precarious life, selling on your debt from one owner to another, or you can put in place the infrastructure that buys assets - players - develops them and sells them on at a profit. It's pretty much as sustainable as a football club gets until TV money kicks in. If you want to see what it feels like to get this wrong, just look at Portsmouth's recent history. I would rather sell Johnson than go through what they are going through.

Part of the disquiet is not so much about losing a talented player, but what it supposedly says about us as a club. It's basic economics; when you buy something, part of the value comes in utility or use you get from it. Part of the price is buying something which says something about you. A Ferrari and a Ford Focus will both get you from A to B, but a Ferrari says you're successful in the way a Focus never will.

The same goes with selling, we're losing a player which subtracts a certain amount from the abilities of the team, but the fact that we need to sell is as much about us admitting that we're not in the same bracket as those who buy from us, it makes us feel weaker. The truth, if we can put aside bruised pride, it does seem that we'll gain more than we'll lose when Johnson goes.

Fans' frustration at the lack of resolution around Johnson are probably not being wholly fair on anyone involved. For the clubs involved there are terms to agree, not just agreeing a fee, but the terms by which that fee might be paid. There's a contract to agree with Johnson and maybe even administration around ending Johnson's own contract with Oxford. Maybe, maybe, Johnson has got to think carefully about the move. Of course, money is a motivating factor, but there's his personal situation; does he want to live wherever he's planning to go and also maybe he looks at the current careers of Lundstram, O'Dowda and (up until very recently) Roofe and does have to think about whether a move into the Championship is for him. I suspect, ultimately, the answer is yes, but that's not always an easy decision to make when you're the one to make it.

In the meantime, the game against Shrewsbury did feel like we're still in transition and the uncertainty around Johnson is a contributory factor. Shrewsbury looked like a team with a simple, but well drilled strategy. Stay organised, break quickly and with numbers. It's all very direct and, so the theory goes, a more sophisticated passing game will always be better. But we're not yet clicking, and we still feel like a team which has the talent but isn't yet locked together with a coherent strategy.

This will come in time, while we are figuring it all out and eeking out points where we can, Darryl Eales is surely going to give Pep Clotet time to bed in his strategy. How long that might take, however, will determine how successful this season is likely to be. But, it might take the resolution of Johnson's situation before we can even start that process in earnest. 

Portsmouth wrap - Portsmouth 0 Oxford United 1

The total number people that have watched Oxford United since Christmas is 66,456, that’s more than double the number that watched us over the same period last year. The next couple of games will push that gap even further. Last week, for the first time ever, I bought two home tickets for different games at the same time. As a season ticket holder, I don’t usually need to worry about tickets at all, very occasionally I trouble the ticket office for an away-day or one-off cup ticket. In a normal season I might buy one ticket a year in advance of a home game, now I’m buying two in a week. 

If that teaches us anything, it’s that we’re very much not in Kansas anymore. This is not, in any way, a normal season, which means we’re facing a very different kind of pressure. If you look around the squad, there’s no experience of playing in this kind of environment. There are a few promotions in the squad, the odd cup upset and even one or two Wembley appearances, but who has done it all at the same time? If you look in the stands, there’s no experience of dealing with it either.

The win over Portsmouth was critical, but not because of points and league standings. We could afford to drop points in January because, if we apply ourselves, we should be able to pull back any losses in February and March. It’s not so much that those fixtures are easy, it’s just that January has been particularly hard. But things aren’t quite as straight forward as that; a defeat to Portsmouth would have made it two in a row. And, let’s not kid ourselves, the next two games against Blackburn and Millwall will both be significant tests. We could have gone into the game at Exeter off the back of a, technically speaking, poor run, maybe even four defeats. 

That’s the sort of thing that puts doubts in your head - the fabled Oxford United post-Christmas collapse, a lack of goals up front. It’s not physical or technical ability, but the mental capacity to cope that becomes the difference between success and failure. 

The win over Portsmouth continues to build a template for success. Key reference points that can be used in tougher times. A picture which shows we can compete, and win, in almost every scenario. As an Oxford fan it is very difficult to make bold predictions about the outcomes of a season, particularly in January. But, with the toughest possible month almost behind us, you have to say, promotion is absolutely in our hands.

Coming up - Portsmouth

The drop

Good lord it's been a long month. Notts County into Swansea into Millwall into Bristol Rovers into Portsmouth. And if that's not enough then it's just the trifling matter of Blackburn next week, which, if you need reminding, replaced our game against second place Northampton. Who decided that was a good idea?

Portsmouth away would normally be considered a highlight of the season, but this season it just seems to be part of a dazzling glare of highlights.

It's difficult to really work out what we'll be facing on Saturday. In the three years Pompey have been in League 2, this year's vintage seemed to be the best we've seen when they came to the Kassam in August. They've also lost the least number of games in the division, but they've drawn the most. They sit a threatening 5th, have just beaten Ipswich in the cup, but have only won four in the last 10.

We on the other hand, are still well placed in third we're on the verge of a Wembley final, we've just beaten two teams from a higher division... but, we're in comparatively poor run of League form. Although we've also enjoyed a much needed rest this week.

It's all so confusing, I'm beginning to think this success lark isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Old game of the day

Portsmouth wrap - Oxford United 1 Portsmouth 1

I’m always cautious about making comments on the bigger clubs. I’m sure there is a zealot Morecambe or Accrington fan somewhere who takes personal exception to you having even a single opinion about them, but when you expand those clubs to the size of someone like Portsmouth, that number is likely to be significantly higher and chances are a few will stumble across your blog to take mortal offence.

But, for the first time since they appeared in League 2, Pompey looked more comfortable in their skin on Saturday. It is a curious, probably unique, mix. A club with the pressure of playing in front of a Premier League type crowd, but without the money to invest in the players able to cope mentally with those demands. It must make recruitment a nightmare. For once, though, they look like they’re getting somewhere.

But, we matched them, or they us, depending on how you look at it. Saturday was League 2 football at it’s best. The game pulsed throughout with their quality in possession and our attacking drive. They dominated the opening 10 minutes, we took the rest of the half. Callum O’Dowda’s exit was significant, like he’s the ignition key for our machine.

Second half they re-established themselves when we looked dead on our feet. I momentarily looked away when McGurk's shot went in, but the bloke in front of me yelped "OH, SHIT!" as it did, so I knew something was up. Liam Sercombe’s driving run which drew the foul from Doyle, leading to his red card, was probably as important as his goal because it took the sting out of the pressure Pompey were building while we were peddling squares. Ultimately, the draw was a fair result.

There was talk after the game about the introduction of Hoban over Roberts. There’s little doubt that Roberts is the more finessed player, but, at that point, when Lundstram and Roofe were running on fumes and O’Dowda was off, was the team equipped to give Roberts the chances in front of goal he needed? At that point, I think, only a speculative haymaker was going to deliver the knockout punch; Hoban or Taylor were the better options to go for the three points and protect the one.

I’ve said from the off that this game was always going to be significant in the context of the season; the first real assessment of our chances. The result is that we’ve responded to every challenge we’ve been given. Look at the table - Orient, Pompey, Plymouth, Wycombe, us - you wouldn’t be surprised to see those five at the top come May. The first selection has happened and we’re part of it.

Coming up: Portsmouth

The drop

A big one, and for lots of reasons. Pompey have sold out their allocation, which will inevitably bring a different atmosphere to the Kassam. This, their third season in the bottom tier, appears to be the first time they’ve managed to get off to a decent start. This could be the first genuine promotion contender we've faced this season; as opposed to a team that we think might be a contender.

In the context of our season, from the outset, this one was the fixture after which we could genuinely assess our own prospects for the year. With the defeat to Northampton still in the memory banks, the difference between going into that first checkpoint on the back of two defeats in a row, or alternatively, two wins in three, is vast.

Is Kemar Roofe fit? The club's relative silence on this could be read two ways. On one hand, if Roofe is fit they would celebrate it to drive ticket sales and the good vibes that exist around the club these days. However, perhaps they're keeping things under wraps as a tactical move in an attempt to spoil Pompey's planning. The club is being built on being positive; and I'm not convinced Pompey would be making plans to accommodate Roofe specifically, anyway, so my guess is that we won't be seeing him this weekend.

Any other business - My Oh My

I've always been a bit jealous of clubs that have a club anthem - You'll Never Walk Alone, Play Up Sky Blues, Delilah, Pompey Chimes. They give a club a sense of history. Who knew we had one under our nose? 

The playing of My Oh My as part of #RetrOUFC was a surprisingly stirring moment. It's cheesy because it's universal, nobody wants an sing-along club anthem which is a Radiohead instrumental b-side about melting ice caps. The opening bars made me recoil initially, but as it built and the flags in the east stand waved, I felt a sense of another jigsaw puzzle fitting into place. I hope it'll become a fixture in the match day experience.

Old game of the day

There's loads of good stuff to choose from when it comes to clips of us against Portsmouth, but I'm going with a bona fide classic. I was at university and could only follow the game via occasional updates on the radio. With minutes ticking by we were facing a serious beating, I turned the radio off. It was only a few days later that I found out what happened in that ridiculous few remaining minutes. Yes, it's the 5-5 draw from 1992.

From the blog

In January 2014 we met Pompey when they were still going through an identity crisis. On the face of it, a Premier League club, in reality something much more desperate. Pompey fans loved me for this one.

"The Portsmouth following may still look like it's from the Premier League, they sing heartily, but it is difficult to know what for. Their team is wretched, ponderous, unambitious and glacially slow. As incongruous as it feels; they are genuinely amongst the worst we've seen at the Kassam this year."

Read on.

Plan B?

When we opened the season with four consecutive league defeats and without a win in nine, there were those who applauded the style, if not the results, that Michael Appleton was trying to produce. The more sceptical pointed out that not only were the results not coming, that come the long winter months, the weather would ensure that things could only get worse.

The quality of pitches this season seems to have become more of an obsession than in the past. Perhaps it is because of the ubiquity of the lush, green carpets of the Premier League that we have come to believe is the norm. Maybe it is the product of extreme weather resulting from global warming. Maybe it's the London Welsh obsession, although the obsession doesn't seem limited to the state of our pitch. Maybe it’s a hidden product of the economic downturn where clubs are cutting corners to save costs.

Certainly the expectation that pitches should be green and lush throughout the season is a modern phenomenon. In the 70s and 80s, rutted, muddy pitches in January and February were the norm, it became a great leveller that ensured FA Cup giant killings were more likely. Football, perhaps, wasn’t viewed through the filter of the aesthetic, as it is today, but instead through one of dour pragmatism. It was less important that a game was good and played the right way, more important that it simply happened.

Some seem to be under the odd illusion that lower league players cannot play football on grassless pitches. And that this is at the heart of our problems; because the quality of pitches is awful, we cannot play our way. On the contrary, this is surely much more of a norm for most of them.

Michael Appleton applauded his team’s ‘combativeness’, ‘organisation’ and ‘professionalism’ in the draw against Portsmouth. All terms that wouldn’t have been out of place in a Chris Wilder post-match interview. Incidentally, for those who don’t track this kind of thing, Mr Wilder, with his dull, defensive football, is currently at the helm of the division’s leading goalscorers, the boring sod.

Like last year’s memorable 4-1 reverse, the occasion of the Pompey game probably overstated the result on Saturday. Away draws at Morecambe or Wimbledon - teams directly above and below Pompey - would have been considered solid results rather than some something akin to a win. The 12th Man of Fratton Park is probably the complete opposite at the moment as the visitors thrive on the novelty while the hosts whither with fear. Something we know about only too well.

Organisation and combativeness are both qualities that take you far in League 2, particularly on pitches which won’t allow the ball to run true. It has become more evident in our game in recent weeks and it seems little coincidence that Jake Wright and Ryan Clarke, amongst other warrior types, have finally found some form. It seems that they are relying on their instincts and strengths - honed on the awful pitches of League 2 and the Conference - rather than obsessing over playing the game the right way.

Is this the emergence of a Plan B? A conscious move away from the FA’s training text book towards the cold realities of the lower leagues? Appleton is not clear on the matter. My instinct would say that it’s a happy accident, although the signing of the lanky target man Armand Gnanguillet might suggest otherwise. The key is whether Appleton will learn from this year’s experience or stick pig-headedly to the philosophy. Will he be fooled by the return of beautiful lush turf come August?

Morecambe update
I have some sympathy for Michael Appleton after the draw against Morecambe. This 'trench warfare' football never looks good when you're losing. We were far from outplayed, as we were against Shrewsbury, Wycombe and Southend, and in the end the same performance could easily have produced a defeat, a win as well as the draw we got.

The problem he has is what got us here in the first place; too many signings, too much rhetoric, too many false dawns and corners turned. People were quick to jump on his pre-match comment that this was the group of players he wanted all along. That was a daft comment - similar the 'no plan B' statement at the start of the year - which was always going to come back to haunt him.

Because he is so backed into a corner with his previous statements about not being one for compromise, it's difficult to know whether he is genuinely learning from this season's experience - as it appears on the pitch - or whether, as his interviews seem to imply - he's blind to the realities of what he's dealing with.

One does not simply walk into Oxford United

I feel a bit conflicted; I’ve long been an advocate of the long steady development of a football club. Less boom and bust, less hire and fire. I was proud of the fact we had a manager that was the third longest serving in professional football. I liked that we were committed to investing in local talent for the long term. What’s more, it worked, the steady progress saw us improve annually; albeit by decreasing margins in later years.

But, only five games into his reign, I am finding myself critical of Michael Appleton. He hasn’t benefited from a stellar start, like Chris Wilder did, but at the same time he’s yet to match Wilder’s seasonal winless streaks, although not by much. By the token that we should look to the long term, Appleton needs time. So why am I frustrated by him so soon?

Defenders of Appleton say his style of football is an improvement on what went before and that good will out; if we play the right way we will win games, we just need to be patient. The style has improved, chances were being created against Portsmouth, but another defeat and with it a drop to the bottom of the table shows that at the plan isn’t working in terms of results.

I struggle with the results/performance equation. I agree with the aesthetic of playing football the right way, but only if you get the right results. The best times I've had as an Oxford supporter at the Kassam were under the pragmatic tactics of Ian Atkins and Chris Wilder. The common factor was we won games.

I’m not sure, on reflection, that it is Appleton where my frustrations lie. During the summer, Ashton and Eales came piling into the club; all toothy smiles and promises of passion. The callous removal of Gary Waddock suggested that they had arrived with a sure-fire winning plan. But instead, they’ve installed a manager and starved him of resources. Or at least, struggled to get their act together. Time will tell as to whether they were unable or unwilling to invest in players, but at best it appears that they beyond a hectic PR schedule, they didn’t have a plan, certainly not on the playing side.

I’m not for a second suggesting that Waddock was the answer, but I’m guessing he did have a plan for the season and had that not worked, and we’d opened with four defeats, then the decision about his tenure would have been an easy one, given his performance at the end of last year.

Ashton pleaded for time; but the first shot in anger, the appointment of Appleton, showed that time wasn’t a key consideration. Waddock was gone within hours of them taking over. But what they replaced it with was a void rather than a another, better, manager.

Appleton may still come good once he’s found his feet and Ashton has found his phone book and chequebook amongst the packing boxes in his office. Will Hoskins is an interesting signing, which could be the game-changer, but also could be another Peter Leven. In the meantime we’re relying on passion, talent, hope and other immeasurables.

It’s probably fair to say that we’re not far off; each game to date has been lost by the odd goal to teams who are currently first, second and fourth, but we’re relying on the law of averages to pick up points; currently we’re slightly on the wrong side of average, presumably over the season we’ll come out on the right side. But, by that token, ultimately, we’ll end up average.

The concern, of course, is that this isn’t a concern to Eales and Ashton because buying into the club is just the latest move in a big land deal. And that for them this isn’t a results game. Promotion, relegation or mid table doesn’t impact the value of the land they’re hoping to acquire, so why invest? It’s possible that Appleton is a stooge; he seems a reasonable chap who is probably happy to have any job given where he's been previously. Plus, he is wealthy enough not to work. Unlike, say, Wilder or Atkins, who needed to be successful to pay the mortgage, Appleton may just be the passive front man Eales and Ashton need. It would explain why Waddock was ousted so quickly.

I should say, that I’m not convinced the real story is quite so linear. I doubt anyone wants to fail, presumably the duo want to impress the masses (and I mean masses) of people who now occupy the executive box at home games. However, I can see that in a world of competing priorities; some things are more important than others. If Eales is going to spend, say, £100,000 - there’s a far greater, and more certain, return on investment paying for legal fees on a land purchase than on a 27 year old, fit, proven goalscorer. It probably wouldn’t be a one-or-other option; but if his resources are limited, it seems to me that the allocation is likely to go on the land deal, not the player.

As an aside, I like Danny Hylton more than I thought I would; stuck amongst Wilderian players and Appletonians, it seemed he was destined to become the Sansa Stark* of the club; stuck between the houses of former and emerging kingdoms while being part of neither. But, he ran himself ragged on Saturday and seems to have thrown himself at the challenge like no one else.

I feel for Morris; he seems keen to get on the ball, with players preferring to pass rather than put the ball in places for him to attack, he keeps dropping deep and out of position. At one point in the first half, the pattern of play suddenly presented itself with an opportunity. A quick cross to the edge of the box, where a gap had opened up, and Morris would have been in. Then I realised that Morris was the man on the ball and the space in the box was the result of him not being there. Another time he was tussling with Portsmouth’s deep lying midfielders leaving the back four as an untroubled final defence.

On the hour, Morris suddenly seemed to be going backwards. He’s a hulk of a player, but nearly a decade from his physical prime, spending an hour dropping deep and looking for the ball had taken its toll. At that point the game became a war of attrition, and it was likely to be a survival of the fittest. Experience will eventually teach him to take his time, but it would also be nice to think that his habit of looking for the ball might be coached out of him.

Neither side really looked like they were going to win it at that point. Both teams were likely to get a chance or two, less through talent, more by virtue of the fact that eventually the ball is going to end up near one or the other goal. They bundled in their chance and Junior Brown headed ours over the Oxford Mail stand. As I say, we’re relying on the law of averages. At some point Eales and Ashton need to tip the odds more in Appleton’s favour; this week’s activities are likely to be telling.

 * A character from Game of Thrones whose family is all but wiped out by a powerful, ruling, family during a bitter civil war. By this time she is promised to marry the king; a member of her family's killers. A deal she is unable, now on her own, to renege on. She subsequently finds herself neither a member of her own family - all of whom are dead or on the run - nor that of that which she is expected to marry into. Like Danny Hylton. 

The collapse of a once great empire

There was a curious atmosphere at the Kassam on Saturday. Failing Portsmouth brought a following fit for the Premier League, while we - holding a play-off spot - spattered around the rest of the stadium as though our visitors were Rochdale or Accrington. The biggest small game or the smallest big game of the season.

Portsmouth was an answer to one of the questions on Fighting Talk on Saturday morning. It was in response to the question 'Who or what would you not like to be in the shoes of?'

The explanation was that Pompey have found themselves the poster boys for almost all the game's ills - implicated, indirectly, in match fixing, debt, greed, bankruptcy and relegation. It's kind of difficult to know whether they are the victims of the system, or one of the villains stupid enough to get caught.

Cut to Saturday afternoon and the great swathes of Portsmouth fans banking along the North Stand; an impressive sight and a great racket. We, on the other hand, arrived in our dwindling number, eroded by form and an acute awareness of the product on offer. We weren't fooled by the name of the team in town, this was just another League 2 fixture. It was a peculiar sight; not dissimilar to our days in the Conference when we'd swamp ramshackle non-league stadia; and then put in a ramshackle non-league performance.

The Portsmouth following crowd may still look like it's from the Premier League, they sing heartily, but it is difficult to know what for. Their team is wretched, ponderous, unambitious and glacially slow. As incongruous as it feels; they are genuinely amongst the worst we've seen at the Kassam this year.

You wonder how it can possible sustain the facade. Even the most loyal fans realise eventually that a failing club simply isn't worth the effort. You don't stop supporting, of course, you just stop going.

What is an away crowd made up of? I’ve no evidence to back this up; but I’d say 15% are made up of those who go to every game and have become almost divorced from functioning society, they haven’t seen anything outside a football stadium on a Saturday afternoon between August and May for years. A majority, say, 55% will be those who consider away games as a normal part of their support – they’ll go regularly, but not always. 10% will be exiles for whom this is their local fixture, a rare opportunity to see their team, the first fixture they look for when they come out in June. Another 10% will have some kind of affiliation with the opponents' town or surrounds – perhaps they’ve got friends there, or it’s their old university town. What remains is 10% of people who simply come for some random reason – a free weekend, a ground they’ve never been to.

Whether it’s Accrington Stanley or Manchester United, I reckon away followings are broadly made up like this. The volumes are different - dictated by success - but the motivations are the same.

Portsmouth fans will still feel the echo of trips to Wembley, The Emirates and Old Trafford, so they continue to bring large numbers. But, the thing about young people is that they gradually become old people. The 55% of regulars will, over time, acquire responsibilities – family, work, weekly shops at Morrisons – for which they will eventually have to sacrifice long boozy away days with their mates.

What, in normal circumstances, replaces those people are more people like you used to be. Except when you’re like Portsmouth, those young (and they are usually young) men (and they are usually men) need to have a reason to make the financial sacrifice to follow a team up and down the country. Good football and results help, of course, but that's in woefully short supply for Portsmouth. The new regulars that bulk out an away following won't have the memories to compel them to travel.

You wonder, if they do survive this year (I think they will, but it’s far from guaranteed) and we stay down (who knows?), whether we’ll see the same numbers turning up in the North Stand next year? I doubt it; and over time, if they can’t arrest this slide they’ll become filed alongside us, Wimbledon, Bradford, Luton and others under ‘weren’t we good once’?

We, on the other hand, are a reliable diesel, slow, unspectacular, but we’ll get there eventually. There were times on Saturday when we were like a snow plough; slowly pushing back Portsmouth to their own penalty box. But we could dig out way through the piles of blue, er, snow that we'd created. Ryan Williams, Alfie Potter, Danny Rose, Dave Kitson and now Nicky Wroe are supposed to give us a creative spark on top of the platform of Mullins, Wright and Whing (when fit). In reality back-four is heart of the team is. We looked more robust with Mullins in midfield, which gave Rose, Wroe and Rigg more time on the ball, but it still feels like a team to draw a lot of games.

People are screaming for something more thrilling, and exciting and it’s difficult to argue against that. But that’s where we are at the moment and the pattern is all but set for the rest of the season. If we do make any more signings before the end of the transfer window, they’re not likely to make a lot of difference to the overall pattern and style. It’s time to knuckle down and endure the ride.

Liveblog: Wilder to Portsmouth?

As this seems to be an evolving story, here's an Oxblogger first: a 'liveblog', which I'll keep adding to as things progress over the next few days. That sounds like fun, doesn't it? Like the posh papers do ironically when covering Strictly, only much much slower with less pictures of Susannah Reid. 

Tuesday night: Righting some wrongs
My previous post on this is the third most read in the history of this blog. It has generated a rather lot of vitriol and misinterpretation. So, in no particular order, a few points of clarification.

• I know football existed before 1980 - I use it as a convenient breakpoint to define a 'modern era' - a lifetime following football (mine, at least). For a 20 year period before 1980 neither Oxford nor Portsmouth did anything of any major note and you can't say Portsmouth are a big team because they won the league 63 years ago.
• In the early 80s there were two types of football club; those which were on TV - Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and those who came to the Manor from time to time. Portsmouth were more of the latter than the former, so were Lincoln and Exeter. When you're eight, that's how the world is.
• Just because I don't think Portsmouth are a HUGE club (certainly not anymore), doesn't mean I think Oxford are. It's not a zero-based game. I think Portsmouth risk slipping into the trap of mistaking their 'brand' (Premier League pedigree, FA Cup winners) with their team (hovering above the relegation zone in League 2). That's not healthy.
• This isn't a Southampton thing. I feel like the landlord of a quiet country pub that has been invaded by two bikers gangs. Stop fighting each other, at least don't do it on my blog or in my Twitter feed.
• It's not really a Portsmouth thing; it's about the decisions our manager might make and whether it's a good move for him or not.
• It seems there are many very good and reasonable Portsmouth fans who have said some nice things about the post. Thank you, you're a credit to your club.

Wednesday lunchtime: Dedication? What dedication?
Some people are treating Chris Wilder's decision to talk to Portsmouth as an act of high treason. They're beginning to sound like people who would might kill a lover just to ensure they never talk to another man.

With a slightly cooler head, perhaps it's not quite as bad as it seems:

Scenario #1: “Hi Chris, thanks for the interview. To be honest you’re a bit more northern than we like, we like happy cockneys, y’know like Harry Redknapp who won us the FA Cup. Sorry, we thought you were from Bournemouth.”

Scenario #2: “Hi Chris, thanks for the interview. Do you want the job? We’ll offer you £25k a year and a two year contract, but if we fire you, you won’t be entitled to compensation. Oh, and we’ve got no money for players. But, hey, we’re Portsmouth, we’ve got that crazy bloke with the bell.”

Scenario #3: “Hi Chris, thanks for the interview. We’re going to quadruple your salary, give you a 10 year contract with no break clauses and we’ll pay you your entire salary in full even if we fire you. And that shady character in the corner sitting on a pile of cash is a Russian oil billionaire who will spend anything to get us into the Champions League. Honestly, he's mad, just ask him for whatever you want; go on. Oi, can I have a speed boat? Yes!? Brilliant! See?”

Portsmouth want to employ a new manager and they might want Chris Wilder to be that man (they might not). If Chris Wilder doesn't talk to Portsmouth, he doesn’t know which of these scenarios (or any variation thereof) will play out. However, if he talks to them, he will know. Like crossing the road; it's always good to check if any cars are coming.

And when he knows, all parties can make a rational decision about what they want to happen next. It may be a wonderful offer that makes him for life, it may be a laughable offer. They may hate each other.

This isn’t about an emotional dedication to Oxford United; it’s about being a rational thinking adult.

Friday afternoon: There are three of us in this relationship
Perhaps more.

It seems, for once, Chris Wilder hasn't got himself a result when playing away. Richie Barker is set to become Pompey's manager, Chris Wilder is set to be rejected, or perhaps he turned them down. Frankly we'll probably never really know.

This was presented as a 'Pompey for Wilder/Wilder for Pompey' story. The role of the Oxford, beyond doing the admin of allowing permission, was largely ignored. I think they were more important than they've been portrayed.

When Chris Wilder appeared on the touchline against Gateshead it became pretty obvious a move is unlikely. In order for Portsmouth to put an offer to Wilder, they would need to do a deal with Oxford first, who hold his contract. The club wouldn't have stood in Wilder's way; he only has a few months on his deal and why try to hold on to a manager who clearly doesn't want to be there?

However, if Pompey really wanted to offer a deal to Wilder, who they talked to on Wednesday, why would they wait? They would have had to gone to Ian Lenagan to arrange compensation - which would have been somewhere between minimal to none, given Wilder's contract. It would still have had to be done. The club, then, couldn't risk taking on Gateshead with a manager they knew was leaving. He'd have been put on gardening leave and presumably Mickey Lewis would have taken on the team.

The club are in a strong position to control the speed of the deal; so the longer it goes on, the less likely it is that Wilder is going to leave.

Pompey chimes, Pompey bleats

Just as everyone was basking in the unlikely glory of a last minute goal at Fleetwood and even more improbably, in the fact we're still top of the league a story broke. Portsmouth want to talk to Chris Wilder. But, would this a good move for him?

Twitter is at its best moments after a story breaks, and at its worst for the 2 weeks after. I hadn't really kept up with our draw at Fleetwood; I was in Tesco when Danny Rose missed his penalty. By the time I'd got in the car Jerome Sale was winding up the game saying we were still unbeaten away. Somewhere in between Dave Kitson scored.

By the time I'd got home I knew that Radio Oxford would have been heading round the grounds to people like Headley Feast to find out how the Oxford City Nomads got on, or giving out the results of the Cherry Red Records 8th Reserve Division. I didn't bother putting the radio on.

Later, I checked Twitter; something had happened. Wilder, Pompey, #wilder, #pompey. Mick Brown said something, Ian Lenagan said something. I love these moments, when fragments of a news story start coming together into something vaguely coherent. Twitter is perfect for something like this.

Eventually it transpired that Portsmouth had made an approach for Chris Wilder. Mick Brown appears to have revealed it to the media despite there being no official acknowledgement of the approach from either club.

This is big news; Portsmouth are a massive club, FA Cup winners in 2008, they were finalists in 2010. How could Chris Wilder resist the lure of such a massive opportunity to manage a such a massive club…

… who are currently languishing in 18th in League 2 without a win in 5.

Ian Lenagan referred to them as a 'failing club' which is a little ungracious but ultimately true. In his defence, it was said under pressure, but Portsmouth fans were incredulous at the slight. They're fan-owned, they're HUGE and they've got a history to die for. Hear them roar.

This delusional behaviour should be enough to put Chris Wilder off whether we were top of the division or not. Portsmouth may have taken a worthy step in the right direction, but the corner they're turning is a very long one.

When I started going regularly to football, Portsmouth were just another lower-league team. They were, to me, no different to, say, Lincoln City or Exeter. We seemed to be kindred spirits for a period; having very similar levels of success, mostly around the Championship.

Since 1980 Portsmouth have won two domestic divisional titles, three promotions and one major domestic trophy. We've won two domestic titles, two promotions and one major domestic trophy. On balance, their successes probably slightly outstrip ours, but what I'm saying is that this massive club, in reality, has a fairly moderate history.

In the mid-2000s, as our world collapsed, they suddenly did something remarkable; Harry Redknapp got them promoted to the Premier League almost without warning.

They established themselves by signing a slew of top players; Peter Crouch, David James, Kanu, Jermaine Defoe, er, Dave Kitson. One thing that never added up was how they were doing it - signing such players with such a ropey infrastructure. The PR keeps it pretty simple - the line goes that there's such an enormous amount of money flowing through the Premier League from Sky that everyone's getting rich.

In reality, as Alan Sugar pointed out at the league's inception, the money flows straight through the clubs and into the players' pockets. The size of the TV deal doesn't really matter to the clubs, they won't get to see any of it because it goes on the colossal wages that need to be paid to keep you in the league. If you keep the money, you go down, if you spend the money, you've got nothing in the bank. Portsmouth were hugely trapped in this cycle; they looked and spent like a Premier League club; but they had a ramshackle ground and an owner of limited means.

Only two things breaks you from that cycle; better facilities and/or a mega rich benefactor. When the new stadium failed to materialise and the owner sold up to an Arabian who, it seems, didn't actually have any money, it became clear the club couldn't service their debt. They had to liquidate their assets; sell their players. What followed was three relegations and two periods in administration.

So Portsmouth's massiveness is overstated; their history artificially over-inflated only by a brief, recent period in the Premier League they couldn't really afford.

The artifice of their size brings with it a complacency. It can't have escaped anyone's notice that Portsmouth are currently the 85th in the football league; that they haven't won in 5, that, on current data, the only way is down for them.

However, it is not their on-the-pitch situation that is of most concern. What they have been through is deeply traumatic; the psychological damage that they have suffered lingers on, the cognisant discord between being a club 10 times the size of those around them, but not 10 times better brings with it a deep trauma. Every defeat by an insignificant spec of a club is another mortal blow to their confidence and self-esteem.

We speak from some experience; we were a terrible team with a glorious past and, apparently, money to burn. Guy Whittingham is Mark Wright, the former star who failed to reignite the club. Chris Wilder, in this case, is John Ward or Chris Turner 7 years ago - a good manager we should just bring in to solve all our problems. As easy as picking up a bottle of milk from the newsagents.

Perhaps Portsmouth have got everything in place to turn the corner, there's no evidence on the pitch that this is the case, and it's difficult to ignore the lingering financial burden of having to pay-off former players eye-watering amounts.

A big club? A glorious history? Turning the corner? Ready to return to the big time?

I don't have anything against Portsmouth, I hope on a human level that they survive and prosper. On a football level, I'm not that bothered either way. However, from what I can see, they've got a long way to go before they've recovered and may well fall some way yet. From Chris Wilder's perspective, unless the financial offer is breathtaking, he would be mad to accept the job at this stage in their evolution.

The hollow chimes of a corrupted soul

4-1 away at Portsmouth on the opening day of the season in front of 18,000. Sounds pretty good. No it was pretty good. It was bloody great. But, while we rightly celebrate, did we actually expose the corrupted soul of a stricken football club?

Here's a theory; if, in order to be successful, a football club needs to do 100% of the 'right things'. Within any given division, most clubs will do 95% of those things just to keep a club functioning; they employ a manager with leadership qualities and qualifications, they recruit players with physical attributes or a proven track record, they prepare a pitch and facilities of a 'professional' quality, they ensure money comes in and bills get paid. Sometimes it's touch and go, but I've watched football for over 30 years and I can only remember two clubs failing to fulfil the basic functions of a football club; Chester in 2009 and Maidstone in 1992 - clubs who just about started their season, but failed to finish. That's over 3000 club-seasons with a failure rate of about 0.6%.

The margin between success and failure, therefore, is determined by the remaining 5%. If that sounds like a small margin, think of the difference between promotion and the play-offs or being relegated and not being relegated; often it's no more than a couple of points out of the 130-odd that are available. That's a couple of kicks of the ball in 9 months of football.

Within this last 5% are things like a few extra quid for a striker who can score a goal, some time applied to a fitness programme that ensures your defence can protect an away draw. Little bits and pieces which add up to those 2-3 points which make the difference between success and failure.

Of that 5%, perhaps 1% is immeasurable; luck, spirit, a large crowd pushing you over the line. These aren't magical spirits that take you through to success; they're tiny moments that might make a difference; a milkman being late and not waking up your goalkeeper at 5 in the morning making him slightly sharper and more alert, that's what 'luck' is.

So the difference between success and failure is in the tiny margins of the game. Two teams can look like equals but in the main the one that prevails is the one who has got the last 4-5% right. But, what if one of those teams have missed something in that first basic 95%? You become so complacent that those things are there that you actually forget to put them in place? What if they haven't got the basics right?

When clubs get into trouble, they tend to cut back on the basics; back office staff go before players. But then although it superficially looks like you're functioning (you've got players on the pitch, a kit, a manager, a pitch and so on) in reality that 95% might be 80%. If you can only influence another 5%; once you're on the pitch, you'll only ever make 85%. Then, you're destined to fail.

The BBC did a documentary on the resurrection of Swansea City from near oblivion. When they were taken over by the fans, the biggest difficulty, they thought, was that nobody knew how to run a football club. But when they took control, they realised that the conventional way of running the club seemed to be to muddle through from one game to another. So they put in place plans, organisation, budgetary controls, marketing and so on. They got the basics functions of a business right first, because that was at the core of their failings, then things started to happen on the pitch too.

So Portsmouth fans stepped through the gates of Fratton Park on Saturday with the hope that their troubles, if not behind them, were on the wain. Physically, they still look like the team that won the FA Cup in 2008. Same kit, big crowd, nice stadium. And they're now in the hands of their fans; people with the club's interest at heart. And, well, League 2 is League 2. Lower league football. The spirit of the Pompey chimes should see the club through.

To compound the optimism, the all-knowing bookies have them as favourites. Except shortening odds only reflects the amount of money being placed on them; and if you're ignorant of League 2 things and you want a bet, then you'll probably go with the team you're most familiar with.

We've been there; as you drop through the leagues, you fundamentally believe that something of your inner spirit will prevent you from falling further. Everyone keeps telling you how big a club you are. And then there's physics, of course, which you can't ague with: when you hit the bottom, the only way is up. Which misses the fact that in football there's always another level to fall to (note Stockport playing in the Conference North) and as well as 'up' and 'down' there's 'stay where you are' (Luton). One Pompey blog talked about how he felt more connected now that the real Pompey was back. This brought optimism. This brought 18,000 people through the gate ready for a new glorious future.

However, and we know this from painful experience, there's much more to success than a big name, reputation and following. 90 minutes proves nothing, of course, but it in some way illustrates the need to get the basics right before planning for the future. They prepared for phoenix like resurrection, a spiritual awakening, we prepared for a game of league 2 football. Whether we can do it consistently remains to be seen.

Having been stripped of their ugly appendages of Premier League reckless greed, I've no desire to see Portsmouth failing further (or, really, I don't really care that much whether they succeed or not). If they do find League 2 harder than they thought, I hope they don't become disheartened, I also hope they don't ignore that getting the basics right will come from dull things like organisation and hard work. I hate to say it, but for them purgatory may not be over yet as we emphatically showed on Saturday.

No-news round up

What do professional footballers do during their summer holidays? Not those who have OK! sponsored weddings, normal ones.

Presumably some go off with their families on holiday, catch up with a bit of DIY and watch the football. Others will inevitably disappear off to some party island and do things that professional athletes shouldn’t do. This latter approach illustrated by Yemi in an interview in last year’s programme – “where did you go on holiday and what was it like” to which he replied darkly – ‘Corfu with Danny Rose, one word – quality.’

You know things are quiet when Chris Willmott hobbles out from the physio room for his annual ‘I’m fit and raring to go for the new season’ interview before stubbing his foot on a table leg.

No new signings will worry some; although this follows the pattern of the last two years. Most contracts run out at the end of June, so it’s still a bit early. However, whilst the post-June signing splurge worked(-ish) two years ago, it clearly didn’t last year.

Still at least we’ve got Portsmouth coming down for a friendly – and a Manchester United XI (for this read – a team of Danny Roses – one word, quality), which relieves the ignominy of hosting glamour friendlies against Wycombe and Cheltenham. Jim Smith’s powers may have weakened in recent years, but on some fronts he is second to none.