Good Friday agreements

The last minute draw against Morecambe brought the most vocal complaints yet from the East Stand. However, the more concerning thing has to be the fact that come the end of the season, we'll have something like 18 players free to leave. 

The temptation, after Friday's draw with Morecambe, is to launch into another debate about the future of Chris Wilder. But his fate is surely sealed one way or the other; whichever side Ian Lenagan falls on, he's not likely to need anymore evidence to aid his decision. Friday's performance was not bad, it was average and massively frustrating, like our season.

I do take some exception to two key criticisms of Wilder, however. The first is the complaint that his interviews on the radio are full of excuses, when in fact they are merely explanations. His explanation of the mistakes that were made in the lead up to the equaliser were descriptions of fact not excuses.

I also doubt that Wilder is not aware of the link between the players' performances and his responsibility as manager. So while he talked about his players actions - not taking the ball into the corner, Constable getting caught offside - he's not simply absolving himself of his ultimate accountability to deliver performances.

The question that Lenagan needs to answer is whether Wilder can establish forward momentum and more crucially, what impact his presence might have on the club in the short term, not least in terms of season ticket sales.

So, that's me not debating Chris Wilder. The more concerning thing is the number of players who are about to go out of contract. By my reckoning 19 players can walk away come May.

The club have options on Crocombe, Marsh, Potter and Davis, and it seems fairly logical that they will be taken up. Crocombe and Marsh are a sign that there have been improvements, at least, in youth development. Davis can be a bit heavy footed, but he has pace and strength and gives options down the left. Potter's form is fitful, but he offers creativity and, though its often difficult to see it, something approaching a goal threat.

You'd expect Damian Batt and Andy Whing to be offered new deals. However, I think Whing may go; he's not stupid and will know that he has value in the market at League 1 or 2 level. The club's potential is not what it was when he originally signed, there'll be no Leven or Duberry type signings this summer, will he want to stick around to see whether things improve when there's a risk he'll spend another two years treading water? He'll be 32/33 at the end of another contract, so you'd think this was his last chance at commanding a reasonable salary before he retires. Batt seems settled at Oxford, he's got other interests, the manager likes him, and it's difficult to see why he wouldn't sign.

Last season, alongside Whing, there was a glut of comparatively big time signings. Tony Capaldi barely featured in his first year due to injury, and has done little to suggest he'll be the first in the queue for a new contract. Deane Smalley has had a torrid time, although there's something about his general application  that makes me think that he's worth another year. Jon-Paul Pittman whose injuries suggest he hasn't got the robustness we need; I can't see him staying.

The big two from 2011 were Peter Leven and Michael Duberry. If Leven is offered a new contract, then it's surely going to be on terms that reflect his general lack of availability. I doubt he'll take that sort of offer and, while he still maintains some kind of reputation, will move on. Duberry, I think, may be interested in another season, especially as this season as been so wretched for him. I think there's a chance the club may oblige in the vein hope that he'll recreate the commanding form of his first season. I think that's a mistake. When fit, he's the best defender in the club and can be one of the best in the league, but age plays against him. Duberry was part of a strategy to have accelerated success, this doesn't seem to have worked, it's time to move to something else.

We're also seeing the expiration of the post-promotion contracts with Tom Craddock, Simon Heslop and Harry Worley all up for renewal. I still think Craddock is a class act, but his style (less aggressive than Constable and Smalley) and his injury record play against him. His future, I think, is based on whether alternatives can be found, but I also think that his goalscoring record will see him getting other offers. I'd be surprised if he was at the club next year.

Simon Heslop has continuously flattered to deceive. Scorer of howitzer goals in his first season in particular, he now looks like someone who doesn't even want to play football anymore. Worley also just doesn't seem to have the extra gear in his development. He was part of a error prone defence in the first year back, it seemed Duberry could come in and steady the ship while Worley found his feet. While I think that he may have a future as an impact striker, there's no way the club will take the time to test that theory. Neither will be at the club next year.

Which leaves more recent signings; I like Scott Davies and think it worthy of a new contract, and O'Brien offers reliability we're looking for. Parker is willing, but replaceable. And I can't see the club using up unnecessary wages on McCormick if Ryan Clarke is coming back with Crocombe and Brown as cover.

All of which could leave us with a gaping hole next season. All of which suggests summer risks becoming a massive scramble just for bodies let alone the class we need or that Wilder will be going and the decisions are being delayed to give his replacement more options.

The next Peter Fear?

After quite a bit of searching, I finally found a fact I've been looking for. A statistic that judges the true performance of a referee.

Referees' performances are typically judged on a self-selected sample of what the cabal of pundits, players and managers call 'Crucial Decisions'. The hypothesis is that referees tend to get the Crucial Decisions wrong. This is useful rues for managers, after all, how can they be at fault when referees, tend to get Crucial Decisions so wrong?

But it's easy to say that a referee gets all his decisions wrong, if you the sample you're getting this from is both subjectively chosen and based on a bunch of marginal calls (which you think are going to be wrong in the first place).

What would happen if you measured every decision? Given that every decision has some baring on the outcome on the game, each is, in its own way, crucial. Obviously there's a degree of subjectivity in what constitutes a right and wrong decision, but research suggests that on average referees get between 92% and 99% of all decisions right.

This stands to reason; football would have been hoisted by its own petard long ago if results were entirely at the mercy of random refereeing decisions. The skills of players, so central to the attractiveness of the game, would be an irrelevance. In the end, the good teams end up winning, the bad teams end up losing. The referee doesn't have much influence on the outcome of the game, he keeps things from becoming a brawling mess and he's a convenient target for frustration.

It is reliant, then, on teams to manage games to their own advantage rather than rely on referees to help them win by making the 'right' Crucial Decisions. It is this savvyness which is missing from our game at the moment. Parts of what we're doing are fine; but at the same time we seem so brittle. We get biffed by Chesterfield in the last minute of the first and second halves. The first half we were beyond designated injury time, the second half they took a quick free kick while we dozed. It's not the referee's responsibility to protect us. The moments at which we seem to rely on the referee to help us survive are the moments when the players should be taking responsibility for the situations they find themselves in.

At Barnet on Tuesday, in horrible conditions, we should have had enough to shut the game up once Andy Whing had put us ahead. We never really seemed to be in control; we just seemed to hope we'd survive the remaining 44 minutes of the game. We always looked vulnerable throughout, particularly from corners and crosses. Not so much that we're not very good at defending set-pieces, more ilke that we don't actually believe we can defend set-pieces.

It's easy to blame Chris Wilder; it makes us feel better when there's someone to blame. But, the reality is rarely that simple. We have geared ourselves heavily towards experienced players able to take responsibility on the pitch. A Wilder decision, no doubt, but you buy experience to give you experience. If you are in your late 20's or older and you've sustained a professional football career, you shouldn't have to rely on the manager to tell you what to do.

The player most frustrating with this regard is Peter Leven. Apart from That Goal and a couple of neat flicks in the games around that, Leven is not acting like a senior pro.

Last night, when the game needed to be slowed, the weather suggested the ball needed to be kept on the floor. Leven could have been slowing the pace, playing keep-ball. But, for some reason, he and Chapman let them run at us, through us, putting pressure on the back-four. The frustration I have is not so much what he does when he's on the ball, it's what he does when he's not on it.

Leven, of course, was quickly branded a genius by Oxford fans. He could do anything. But he's been injury prone and drifted in and out of the team. His purple patch seemed to last only a few games last season, we keep expecting the genius to re-emerge. But could we be waiting a long time? Is he just another Peter Fear; a player with the reputation of mercurial talent that persistently fails to deliver.

He's no more the single point of weakness than Wilder is, but it's another fracture in the way we are at the moment. The brittleness extends into the stands; gallows humour on the terraces may be funny, but we don't seem to have the heart for the fight. The Ultimate Support Saturday couldn't come at a better time, as The Boys From Up The Hill exude in a recent post.

What to be done? You could fire the manager, but you'd have the same players. You could spend more money on players, but that puts us into a financial mess. For me, one thing that could be done is to look at one of the successes of Kelvin Thomas' era. Thomas could have been a bit of a maverick, but he knew how to draw together club and fans. If I were Ian Lenagan, recognising the constraints that surrounds the club at the moment, I'd look towards some initiatives in the vein of the 12th Man which made fans a contributor to the solution, not a critical outsider picking away at everyone's confidence. Cohesion between fans and club will help give the players strength, like at the end of the season in Wilder's first year; where a bunch of moderately talented players suddenly felt invincible. That's the missing ingredient at the moment.

2012 squad review - midfield and attack

On stable defensive foundations can a successful squad be built. In midfield and up front, however, despite having a decent pool for fish from, Chris Wilder struggled to find the right formula, at least not one that he could keep on the field for any length of time. The crucible of the argument about Wilder's worth centres on whether the seasons failings were one of incompetence or bad luck.

Peter Leven showed moments of genius; not least his 40 yarder against Port Vale and the flick to play in Liam Davis at Barnet. Injury didn't help him, but he lacked the consistency you get from the more industrious types like, say, Dannie Bulman.

Or Andy Whing; Whing's Supporters' Player of the Season award is wholly understandable. There are stories of people with anaemia who chew on metal in a vain attempt to get iron into their system. The Whing vote reflected a call for dogged consistency. He let nobody down and you suspect he never will.

While Leven, when fit, and Whing, when not deputising in the back four, probably makes up two of our first choice midfield three, the final member of the team is somewhat less clear. Paul McLaren, who was the steadying hand during 2010/11 faded from view. Not unexpectedly, his age suggested that he was only ever a stop gap while the club found itself a firmer footing in the league. Perhaps that was the role expected of Mark Wilson when he arrived, though he failed to make any impact.

Simon Heslop started in fine form, but was one of the early victims of this year's curse of the folk hero - Leven 'doing what he wants', Ryan Clarke's penalty saves, Asa Hall's goals - as soon as their feats were verbalised, they stopped doing them. Heslop was struck by only moderate form and then injury; the two of which may have been related.

Perhaps the most interesting combination was that of Chapman and Hall. They were, in many senses, less explosive, but more consistent. Chapman's return was remarkable he had a composure and awareness that others just don't seem to have. His only problem is whether he can hold it together mentally; which is often the difference between good and great players. Hall had less crafted, but benefited hugely from the base that Chapman offered. Hall's form also benefitted from having a bit lump, like Scott Rendell up front to follow up on knock-downs.The fact Hall has decided not to sign is disapointing; he and Chapman seemed to have a partnership that could be built on.

James Constable needs a break; not in terms of a goal off his backside, but a break from being James Constable; Oxford Icon. Last season he was the focal point of most of the drama involving Swindon; three transfer bids, two goals, one sending off. He seems mentally fatigued by it all, the sparky aggression that gained him so many bookings, but also so many goals in the Conference has been replaced by a subdued and isolated figure. There's a point in every player's career when they need re-engineer their game. Constable needs to be less of a focal point. A glimpse of what might be was seen on the arrival of Scott Rendell. Momentarily, Constable was freed from all his responsibilities, he was able to feed off the balls from the ever willing Rendell. That was blown apart with Constable's sending off against Swindon. It may give us some clues as to how to play next season.

Controversially, amongst fans at least, Chris Wilder's preference is to play 4-3-3. Which either means you end up with a proven goalscorer playing out of position (Midson during the Conference years) or you have players that frustrate and delight with equal measure. John-Paul Pittman had a curious season with his loan to Crawley, momentary spike of form, then - again due to injury - anonymity. Although I have a huge amount of affection for Alfie Potter as a member of the promotion squad, he seems to be rated more highly by others than me. He has his moments, but he puts lots of pressure on the likes of Constable. When Potter was injured, and Craddock struggle to return, Wilder turned to Dean Morgan - who wasn't as bad as people say, but is clearly a bit of an oddball and Christian Montano - who was raw and inconsistent. Oli Johnson, however, was the most surprising omission from Wilder's retained list. He of all the flanking strikers combined a decent supply of creativity with a reasonable number of goals.

For different reasons, we missed Tom Craddock and Dean Smalley. Craddock isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I saw him as being an essential component to the season's success. His sustained absence could easily have cost us 10-15 goals, which would have made all the difference. Similarly, Smalley should have contributed double digits in terms of goals. He didn't seem to do much wrong, but similarly he didn't do much right. If he lasts the summer, let's hope we'll seem him rejuvenated come August.

Torquay United 0 Oxford United 0

It seems fitting that Saturday's welcome non-event at Torquay concluded 2011 seeing that it was at Plainmoor that the year was ignited. With literally nothing to write about from the game, it seems the perfect opportunity to use that trusted device the American sitcoms use from time to time. Yup, let's review the year with a few flashbacks.


Man of the year: Michael Duberry
Over a 12 month period, there is one player who stands imperious over others. It is amazing that only now people are talking about Ryan Clarke as a potential transfer target for clubs at a higher level. James Constable rightly takes on the role of talisman at the club, but barely a game goes by Clarke making a match winning, or saving, save, some of which are world class. To date, he's saved 57% of the penalties he's faced, which is remarkable when you consider that on average only 18% of penalties are saved by the goalkeeper.

But, despite being at the club for only about 5 months - two where he's been injured - no other player has had a greater impact on the club than Michael Duberry. Despite Clarke's brilliance, last year conceding goals was our forte. Duberry has come in and instantly shored up a leaky back four.

But more than that, he's 36, he's played at a much higher level, he's been subjected to the ugly side of football and yet he remains enthusiastic, positive and committed. An intelligent and thoughtful player. It would be so easy to get carried away with his relative celebrity, but you cannot be anything but impressed by his performances both on and off the pitch.

Game of the year: Miracle of Plainmoor
The Swindon game seems the obvious candidate for the game of 2011. It extinguished a 38-year barren run of results at the County Ground. They tried to unsettle our star striker only for the star striker to ram their bullshit right back down their throats. The pantomime villian of the piece got his comeuppance. It even got my write-up about the game some coverage on the Guardian website.

But, the Swindon game was almost too perfect. It was pure theatre, there was a performance with a happy ending - it was almost too scripted.

So, for masochists like me, the game of the year was the aforementioned Miracle of Plainmoor in January. It wasn't just the 4-3 away win, it was more about the subtext. There wasn't a stage or a performance, it was a mundane nothingy fixture. And that's what makes it such a magnificent story.

With the December calendar decimated by snow, we returned to action after nearly a month without a game with a lingering fear that we were about to have a post-snow collapse similar to the one we had 12 months earlier. But, we beat Macclesfield and it seemed that we'd retained our form.

Then, the world collapsed around our ears at home to Southend. An apopleptic Chris Wilder made 8 changes to the starting line-up for the away trip to Torquay a few days later. This included Jack Midson, who was returning from the WILDERness to lead the line at the expense of James Constable. But was Wilder's anger about to get the better of him?

We raced to a 2-0, then 3-1 lead, before entering injury time all square. Then, Midson skipped through and snuck home the winner and complete his hat-trick. Moments later, Steve MacLean stood on the ball in celebration - the picture of the year.

Tour of the year: US tour 
OK, not exactly a lot of competition in this category, but the US tour this summer was brilliant. Timed to coincide with that point in the summer when you actually think you should start trying to work out the point of cricket, the tour of the US happened and it was like going back to the days of Roy of the Rovers.

With games kicking off at 11pm at night, no TV coverage and just the radio connecting you to the games, it felt like they were being played on the moon. A big adventure.

Twitter also came into its own, whether it was following the players onto the plane or the chairman chastising Dean Smalley's finishing via the club's official feed. A PR masterstroke.

Feature of the year: Kassam All Star XI
Perhaps the most startling thing about the Kassam All Star XI series is that I actually finished something I started. Celebrating, if such a thing is possible, a decade at the Three Sides of Hell, the Kassam All Star XI recognised the best the stadium has seen:

Turley, Ricketts, Crosby, Creighton, Robinson, Clist, Bulman, Whitehead, Constable, Mooney, Brooks

Goal of the year: Peter Leven v Port Vale
Every goal that we've ever scored has been greeted with a phrase akin 'WHATAGOAL!'. It always takes me by suprise when the ball hits the back of the net. You'd think I'd have learnt by now, but I'm a bit of a simpleton like that.

But, when Peter Leven intercepted a short pass ten yards inside our own half and looked towards goal, I couldn't have been the only person who chastised him for launching it towards goal. The next 3 seconds produced, maybe, the greatest goal ever seen at the stadium.