O'Dear, O'Doubts, O'Dowda

Stick or twist?

It was always difficult to calibrate just how good Callum O’Dowda was. The fact he was one of our own biased any assessment of him. There were times when he lit up games, although often from the bench rather than from start to finish. He definitely scored a decent number of goals last year. But he started fractionally less than 40% of our league games, so it’s not like he’s leaving a gaping hole in the squad. He was made a full international but he didn’t go to the Euros; was that because he was genuinely deserving of his place or because the Republic were giving him a cap to bank him as being Irish just in case?

He’s young, of course, and that has to be factored in. Maybe in a couple of years all his qualities will be more immediate and all the potential will become a reality. I think only then will we really know whether this move is better for him, professionally, or us financially. With the deal including bonuses for performances and a 30% sell-on clause, it looks like others feel the same.

O’Dowda’s ambition has always been clear – you don’t get coverage in the Daily Mail about a move to Derby County without someone pulling PR strings and you don’t produce professional show reels on YouTube without wanting someone to watch it. Brand O’Dowda has been nurtured over a long period of time.

O’Dowda is professional in a way that others are not. He is insufferably polite and hardworking, both on the pitch and off the pitch. He seems to recognise that being a footballer isn’t just about what you do on the pitch. No footballer is successful by natural talent alone, hard work is key and O’Dowda undoubtedly has that at the heart of what he does. And for that reason, you suspect he’ll always have teams wanting his services, the question is, at what level?

Moving to the team that finished 18th in the Championship last season? In a few weeks’ time, although separated by a division, we may only be a handful of places below Bristol City. It seems such a moderate move for such a lot of hard work. Suddenly he’ll just be another player in a squad of players, not a homegrown talent fans are proud to call their own. This could be important; he’ll be expected to deliver at City – they need a return on their investment - whereas he’d have been allowed to grow at Oxford. And he still needs to grow. When he becomes a player at a moderate Championship club, will he ever be able to shake that label and move higher?

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe another season with us as a regular starter, developing as a player, becoming a more central figure, would have seen his stock rise higher. Appleton's Oxford United develop players, so it’s not like he was likely to go stale. But, maybe as a player you just take the money and opportunity when it’s available, because you may not get a second chance. Maybe Bristol City is a perfect springboard to other things. Maybe this was part of the Brand O’Dowda plan, but it’s hard to imagine anyone sketching out a plan with such meticulousness which had such an underwhelming objective.

The good news is that there’s little pressure to replace O’Dowda given the embarrassment of riches we have in midfield. While it’s always sad to lose a locally developed player, from our perspective, there’s little doubt it’s better to have the money now than the player if you think that players like Liam Sercombe and John Lundstram played more games and cost nothing.

Like all homegrown players, Oxford fans will follow O’Dowda’s progress with interest, perhaps lamenting what could have been had he stayed. I hope he has made the right move and look forward to seeing him playing internationals and one day in the Premier League. But will he? I just can’t tell.

Live blog: The transfer window

For the first time ever, it looks like we’re in for a nervy transfer window with players that other teams might actually want to pay money for. That’s the price of success, I guess. You can see my initial verdict on our six most likely flight risks here, but to try and keep up with the possible comings and goings, I’m going to keep a rolling blog post here throughout January here.

25 January: Baldock returns to MK Dons

George Baldock being recalled by MK Dons strikes me as a pointlessly cynical move by Karl Robinson. Yes, they’re in a relegation fight and having access to good players is important, but apparently they have two good right backs already. Where does Baldock fit into that equation? It appears he is so crucial to Robinson’s plans, he's so desperate to have him fit and available, that he’s allowed him to play for us against Blackburn on Saturday.

Perhaps Baldock will sail into their starting line-up igniting a breathtaking revival of their fortunes; in which case it was all worth it. Perhaps Baldock will sit on the bench where his form and fitness will ebb away and he’ll become the player that Robinson wanted shoved out of his plans in the first place. Can Baldock’s qualities even benefit MK Dons’ way of playing? It’ll take more than just a flying right-back to replicate our form. Maybe, just maybe, they’re planning to sell him or one of those currently in front of him. That would, at least, make some sense.

I don’t know, and care even less; it just seems a pointless thing to do. Is it just a sign that Robinson has lost his way and is just desperate to appear to be doing something because he’s under pressure? What a tool.

For Baldock he gains almost nothing from the move; he loses out on the opportunity of a crack at Wembley and promotion, of developing a profile that could take him into a Championship first team or even higher, of the high quality coaching he’s clearly had under Michael Appleton.

The hysteria around Baldock has grown in recent weeks. There’s been an odd cult of people expressing a homoerotic love for him. It’s one of those things that started as a joke and went viral, even though it wasn’t that funny in the first place; like most of Michael McIntyre’s career. As a result this morning’s announcement has been greeted with confirmation that the empire is on the verge of collapse.

But, in reality; while quality full-backs can certainly make you better, their absence doesn’t make you a bad team. Their primary role is to defend, the better players, like Baldock, can also act as an attacking threat. If you don’t have full-backs with an attacking threat, then you already have wingers to play that role.

13th January: George Baldock back to MK Dones?

We woke up to the news that George Baldock is not for sale and may even be heading back to MK Dons. Really? I haven’t heard the whole interview with the Dons manager Karl Robinson, but what I have heard of it appears to suggest that he was asked about Baldock by a local MK Dons journalist, probably off the back of our win over Swansea. Robinson said he wasn’t for sale and also implied he wasn’t wholly out of the picture despite good coverage in Baldock’s right-back position.

This is the equivalent of someone knocking on your door asking whether your house is for sale. You say no because a) it isn’t and b) by showing that it isn’t you maintain its value. That’s not quite the same as saying never, regardless of the price.

In terms of a possible recall, Robinson’s response seemed to be more ‘never say never’ than ‘it’s possible’. There are lots of scenarios by which Baldock might be recalled of which his form is only one. It could be that they have an injury crisis or receive a bid for one of their preferred right-backs. I still think the more likely scenario is that they will receive a bid from another team that they can’t refuse.

It’s called the media because they ‘mediate’ messages, it’s a filter which can change the meaning of a story. To me it looks like this is nothing more than a slight twist on an interview to make it more newsworthy.

4th January: Callum O’Dowda to Derby County

The Daily Mail have reported that Derby County are looking at Callum O’Dowda, for whom we're apparently asking £1m. In terms of the rumour, I think it has credibility. As Michael Appleton has suggested, O’Dowda has potential to get into a Championship level squad and Derby are the right kind of club for a player like him.

The Mail suggests that Oxford ‘risk’ pricing themselves out of the deal. I’m not sure what the risk is. The club don’t seem to need to sell at the moment, so either we keep the player or we get someone to pay silly money, I can’t see what we’d be losing.

Who has set this valuation of O’Dowda? Is it just a lazy journalist assuming that a League 2 club will sell to anyone offering a cheque? Is it Derby? But why encourage others into the market? Is it Oxford? Darryl Eales has already said that he’d turn down a million pound bid if it damaged promotion (a possible source of that valuation, although Eales was talking about Kemar Roofe), or is it the O’Dowda ‘camp’?

I don’t doubt O’Dowda’s commitment to the club, but it would be wrong to ignore his ambition. He’s very media friendly, he markets himself well (see his professionally produced promotional video), and you don’t become subject to million pound speculation without hard work and focus. If it is him and people around him, it should be viewed as him being professional rather than mercenary. O’Dowda wants to be successful, when opportunity knocks, he’d be wrong not to investigate.

Any other business - Six transfer window flight risks

The transfer window is opens and we’re in the unusual position of actually having players other clubs might want. For a club like us, that fills you with dread because there’s a sneaking suspicion that you won’t be able to replace them. It's not as if we can just plough into the market and pick sign another Kemar Roofe. January is going to be an anxious month. So, who may be of interest to other teams, and what are the prospects of them going?

Kemar Roofe

There’s a lot of hype around Roofe; he scores goals, spectacular ones, and he has two songs about him, apparently Newcastle United are interested. Roofe himself hasn’t been as prominent in recent weeks; partly because he’s playing on the wing rather than down the middle. Plus, while he’s quick and skilful, I’m not sure he’s that different to others out there; I’m no expert, but there’s a reason why West Brom put up so little fight to keep him. I don’t think Premier League clubs are going to take an interest, but I can see Championship clubs sniffing around. There was a suggestion that Hull might be interested, which I think sounds very credible as to the type of team that might try to sign him.

Liam Sercombe

Sercombe’s surging runs through midfield give us a dimension we’ve not had in years, he also scores goals. One of those anonymous Twitter accounts said there were a few Championship clubs taking an interest. I can see why scouts may turn up to the Kassam to get a better look at Sercombe, but they’re watching players all the time. Again, I’m not sure; Sercombe has been on the scene for quite a while with 8 years at Exeter before coming to us. Are clubs going to take a punt based on half a season in a successful team? Plus, he’s on a contract and will cost a fee.

John Lundstram

Lundstram was a bit of a surprise signing for us; he’s played at a good level for England and although he was injured, it wasn’t as if it was career threatening. An Everton fan friend of mine says he was well regarded at the Toffees and earmarked as another to roll off their talent conveyor belt into the first team like John Stones and Ross Barclay. I do think that in a sense we got lucky and he’s playing at a level below which he’s really capable. He’s still young and well schooled. I can’t quite see a clamour for his services, but I judicious financial bid may see him leave.

Callum O’Dowda

He’s one of our own; and he’s got the temperament and skill to forge a very successful career at the top of the game. Is he ready? We don’t play him regularly and Michael Appleton has mentioned a couple of times that he’s been left out of games because he’s exhausted. Clubs will certainly be interested in O’Dowda, I’ve no doubt about that. I don’t know about January, there’s an outside chance of someone buying and loaning back just to secure his services at a later date, but I don’t think he’s going to fill a gap in anyone’s first team at a higher level yet.

George Baldock

He’s not one of our own. Baldock is perhaps the best player in his position in League 2, perhaps in the bottom two divisions. Plus, while the club might be prepared to put up a fight to keep their names, they have no such option with Baldock. I can see a bid coming in for him from a team at League 1 or maybe even the Championship, and I can see MK Dons cashing in on him, because for reasons I can’t quite fathom, they don’t seem to want him. The question is, I suppose, if a bid does come in, will we take on the fight to keep him?

Michael Appleton

Nobody has talked about Appleton leaving, but a couple of managerial movements recently has got me thinking whether he might, eventually, fall into the frame somewhere. There’s no transfer window with a manager so there’s much more opportunity for him to move. He’s well schooled, of course, and well regarded. Has he shaken off any bad reputation gained from him time as Blackpool, Blackburn and Portsmouth… and even us last year? Also, will a team in trouble want an Appleton-type of coach to get them out of the crap? He’s proving a very good analytical coach, but sometimes failing clubs need more of a crisis manager to shake things up a bit. If you’re threatened with relegation, I would choose a Chris Wilder type over Appleton. However, it might be that a successful club with a good infrastructure further up the chain find themselves with a vacancy, I can see Appleton being approached in that situation.